浅析房地产泡沫的成因与危害

近年来,房地产市场持续火热,商品房全面热销,销售价格呈现较大幅度增长。而火爆的房地产市场也引发了有关房地产泡沫的争论。房地产泡沫的存在有利有弊,关键在于将其控制在适度的范围内,避免出现泡沫经济。因此,分析房地产泡沫的形成与危害,针对性提出了防止房地产泡沫的措施。     

Housing booms and media coverage

This article analyses news media coverage of the housing market. Building on theories of media influence where word of mouth is the final mechanism of opinion change but media initiate discourse, I examine the relationship between news media and the recent UK house price boom. Over 30 000 articles on the UK housing market from the period 1993 to 2008 are analysed, and it is found that media Granger-caused real house price changes, suggesting the media may have influenced opinions on the housing market. However, media sentiment on the housing market did not change with the secular increase in house prices in the 2000s, suggesting that the media did not contribute to the UK’s housing boom and may have helped constrain it.     

The Fisher hypothesis: a multi-country analysis

This paper tests whether the Fisher hypothesis holds for a sample of 26 countries by assessing the long run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation rates taking into consideration the short run dynamics of interest rates. The empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that there is a one-to-one relationship between the interest rate and inflation for more than half of the countries under study.     

Decision trees unearth return sign predictability in the S&P 500

Technical trading rules and linear regression models are often used by practitioners to find trends in asset returns. However, these models typically neglect interaction terms between the lagged daily directional movements. We propose a decision tree forecasting model that has the flexibility to capture arbitrary interaction patterns. To study the importance of interaction terms, we construct a binary Markov process with a deterministic component that cannot be predicted without interaction terms between the lagged directional movements. We show that some tree based strategies achieve trading performance significant at the 99% confidence level on the S&P 500 over the past 20 years, after adjusting for multiple testing. The best strategy breaks even with the buy-and-hold strategy at 21 bps in transaction costs per round trip. A four-factor regression analysis shows significant intercept, and correlation with the market. The directional predictability is strongest during the bursts of the dotcom bubble, financial crisis, and European debt crisis. The return sign predictability during these periods confirms the necessity of interaction terms to model daily returns.     

科技进步对泡沫旅游就业的作用关系

针对科技进步推动旅游业发展、旅游可以增加就业的观点,本文经过研究认为,科技进步虽然产生即时性旅游就业,也产生滞后性就业泡沫.科技进步曲线加速阶段与即时旅游就业变化过程是一致的,而在减速过程中则发生旅游就业起伏性变化,生成就业泡沫.文章建议,通过扩大旅游兼职、发展入境旅游和推进兼业(工农业)旅游等方式,达到缓解泡沫旅游就业现象的目的.     

泡沫经济的成因及治理对策研究

文章通过对虚拟经济、羊群效应和资金流动性过剩这三种经济现象的分析，揭示了泡沫经济的生成机理及危害，并提出对泡沫经济的防范、治理要采取宏观政策调控和微观心理引导双管齐下的策略，防范金融风险，保持宏观经济的健康、稳定发展。     

Detecting bubbles in Hong Kong residential property market

This study uses a newly developed bubble detection method (Phillips, Shi, and Yu, 2011) to identify real estate bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market. Our empirical results reveal several positive bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market, including one in 1995, a stronger one in 1997, yet another one in 2004, and a more recent one in 2008. In addition, the method identifies two negative bubbles in the data, one in 2000 and the other one in 2001. These empirical results continue to be valid for the mass segment and the luxury segment. However, this method has also found a bubble in early 2011 in the overall market, and in the mass segment but not in the luxury segment. This result suggests that the bubble in early 2011 in the Hong Kong real estate market was caused primarily by the mass segment under the demand pressure from end-users of small-to-medium sized apartments.     

Subprime lending and the housing bubble: Tail wags dog?

The cause of the “housing bubble” associated with the sharp rise and then drop in home prices over the period 1998–2008 has been the focus of significant policy and research attention. The dramatic increase in subprime lending during this period has been broadly blamed for these market dynamics. In this paper we empirically investigate the validity of this hypothesis vs. several other alternative explanations. A model of house price dynamics over the period 1998–2006 is specified and estimated using a cross-sectional time-series data base across 20 metropolitan areas over the period 1998–2006. Results suggest that prior to early 2004, economic fundamentals provide the primary explanation for house price dynamics. Subprime credit activity does not seem to have had much impact on subsequent house price returns at any time during the observation period, although there is strong evidence of a price-boosting effect by investor loans. However, we do find strong evidence that a credit regime shift took place in late 2003, as the GSE’s were displaced in the market by private issuers of new mortgage products. Market fundamentals became insignificant in affecting house price returns, and the price-momentum conditions characteristic of a “bubble” were created. Thus, rather than causing the run-up in house prices, the subprime market may well have been a joint product, along with house price increases, (i.e., the “tail”) of the changing institutional, political, and regulatory environment characteristic of the period after late 2003 (the “dog”).     

中国股票市场与房地产市场泡沫问题研究

本文针对近年来中国股票市场泡沫问题和房地产市场的泡沫问题这两个市场的具体情况,分别采用简化的F-O模型测度中国股票市场的泡沫度和成本加成定价模型测度房地产市场的泡沫度,得出1999-2007年我国这两个市场近9年来的月度泡沫估计值;通过对两个市场的泡沫度的对比分析,我们发现股票市场的泡沫度比房地产市场的波动更大;房地产市场泡沫并不是导致股票市场泡沫的原因;而股票市场泡沫却是房地产市场泡沫产生的原因.     

虚拟经济与实体经济研究

虚拟经济的发展是实体经济发展的内在要求,虚拟经济产生于实体经济并服务于实体经济,以促进实体经济为最终目的,虚拟经济与实体经济相互制约、相互作用。虚拟经济既可推动实体经济发展,又可阻碍实体经济发展,因此具有两面性。我国需要制定正确的策略和采取有效的措施,使虚拟经济得到健康发展,对实体经济产生良好的作用。